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Georgia Southern vs James Madison prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GASO 26% win74% JMU
22Projected
vs
31ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia Southern Eagles
Record 3–4 · #81 in ratings
Neutral site
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 42 vs 85
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 9.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 9.8
- Projected total
- 53.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Georgia Southern wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 24.0%
- Median score
- 21–31
- Model expectation
- 21.3–31.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia Southern wins, bars on the left are James Madison wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 1767 games
- James Madison 34, Georgia Southern 2056 games
- Georgia Southern 24, James Madison 2049 games
- James Madison 30, Georgia Southern 2448 games
- James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 2046 games
- James Madison 34, Georgia Southern 1745 games
Where the edges are
Georgia Southern offense vs James Madison defenseOffense -1.3Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 4.5 points better than Georgia Southern's offense.
James Madison offense vs Georgia Southern defenseOffense +5.4Defense -0.0Edge James Madison: its offense is 5.4 points better than Georgia Southern's defense.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | James Madison | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.23 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.5% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 38.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 41.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 18.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.