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Georgia Southern vs Marshall prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Georgia Southern
GASO 79% win21% MRSH
31Projected20If MRSH upsets
vs
19Projected29If MRSH upsetsHome
Georgia Southern Eagles
Record 3–4 · #81 in ratings
Away
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | GASO | MRSH | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 73 | 57 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert21%Marshall wins on the road
If Marshall plays at home34% ▲
Marshall: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (South Alabama 20–13, Middle Tennessee 28–26)
Georgia Southern: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Jacksonville State 27–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Marshall won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- GASO 27, MRSH 1774 games
- GASO 30, MRSH 1062 games
- GASO 27, MRSH 1057 games
- GASO 34, MRSH 1757 games
- GASO 34, MRSH 1057 games
- Power index
- 42 vs 9
- Projected
- GASO favored
- Differential
- 12.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Georgia Southern, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Georgia Southern.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia Southern by 12.1
- Projected total
- 49.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Georgia Southern wins by 21+
- 28.4%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- Median score
- 30–17
- Model expectation
- 30.3–18.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia Southern wins, bars on the left are Marshall wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Georgia Southern offense vs Marshall defenseOffense -1.3Defense -4.4Edge Georgia Southern: its offense is 3.1 points better than Marshall's defense.
Marshall offense vs Georgia Southern defenseOffense -6.0Defense -0.0Edge Georgia Southern: its defense is 6.0 points better than Marshall's offense.
| Stat | Georgia Southern | Marshall | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.15 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.25 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.5% | 45.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.4% | 43.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 21.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.