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Georgia State vs Marshall prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Marshall
GAST 68% win32% MRSH
33Projected24If MRSH upsets
vs
25Projected34If MRSH upsetsAway
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Home
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | GAST | MRSH | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 57 | 57 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog32%Marshall wins at home
At a neutral site24% ▼
Marshall: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (South Alabama 20–13, Middle Tennessee 28–26)
Georgia State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Arkansas State 32–38)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Marshall won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- GAST 27, MRSH 2054 games
- GAST 30, MRSH 2452 games
- GAST 37, MRSH 2744 games
- GAST 34, MRSH 2043 games
- GAST 34, MRSH 3042 games
- Power index
- 50 vs 9
- Projected
- GAST favored
- Differential
- 7.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Marshall, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Marshall.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia State by 7.6
- Projected total
- 58.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 20.4%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- Median score
- 33–24
- Model expectation
- 32.5–25
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia State wins, bars on the left are Marshall wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Georgia State offense vs Marshall defenseOffense +3.9Defense -4.4Edge Georgia State: its offense is 8.3 points better than Marshall's defense.
Marshall offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense -6.0Defense -3.7Edge Georgia State: its defense is 2.3 points better than Marshall's offense.
| Stat | Georgia State | Marshall | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.25 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 45.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 43.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.9 | 21.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
