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Georgia State vs Northern Illinois prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GAST 92% win8% NIU
42Projected
vs
21ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Neutral site
Northern Illinois Huskies
Record 0–7 · #138 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 50 vs 0
- Projected
- GAST favored
- Differential
- 20.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia State by 20.6
- Projected total
- 62.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 17.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.0%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 51.0%
- Northern Illinois wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Median score
- 41–20
- Model expectation
- 41.3–20.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia State wins, bars on the left are Northern Illinois wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia State 48, Northern Illinois 1761 games
- Georgia State 37, Northern Illinois 1755 games
- Georgia State 44, Northern Illinois 1755 games
- Georgia State 33, Northern Illinois 1753 games
- Georgia State 44, Northern Illinois 2049 games
- Georgia State 40, Northern Illinois 1749 games
Where the edges are
Georgia State offense vs Northern Illinois defenseOffense +3.9Defense -11.7Edge Georgia State: its offense is 15.6 points better than Northern Illinois's defense.
Northern Illinois offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense -8.7Defense -3.7Edge Georgia State: its defense is 4.9 points better than Northern Illinois's offense.
| Stat | Georgia State | Northern Illinois | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.34 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 37.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 52.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.9 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 38.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.