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Georgia State vs Old Dominion prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GAST 78% win22% ODU
31Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Neutral site
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 50 vs 7
- Projected
- GAST favored
- Differential
- 11.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia State by 11.0
- Projected total
- 51.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 32.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 25.9%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- Median score
- 31–20
- Model expectation
- 31.3–20
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia State wins, bars on the left are Old Dominion wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia State 30, Old Dominion 1760 games
- Georgia State 27, Old Dominion 1755 games
- Georgia State 34, Old Dominion 2454 games
- Georgia State 23, Old Dominion 1753 games
- Georgia State 30, Old Dominion 2053 games
- Georgia State 34, Old Dominion 1051 games
Where the edges are
Georgia State offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense +3.9Defense -1.6Edge Georgia State: its offense is 5.5 points better than Old Dominion's defense.
Old Dominion offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense -9.5Defense -3.7Edge Georgia State: its defense is 5.8 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
| Stat | Georgia State | Old Dominion | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | -0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 30.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 39.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.9 | 15.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 26.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.