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Georgia State vs UCF prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
GAST 38% win62% UCF
28Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia State Panthers
Record 4–3 · #70 in ratings
Neutral site
UCF Knights
Record 4–3 · #40 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 50 vs 72
- Projected
- UCF favored
- Differential
- 4.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCF by 4.7
- Projected total
- 60.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Georgia State wins by 21+
- 5.4%
- UCF wins by 21+
- 15.3%
- Median score
- 27–33
- Model expectation
- 27.7–32.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia State wins, bars on the left are UCF wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCF 31, Georgia State 2756 games
- UCF 27, Georgia State 2052 games
- UCF 34, Georgia State 2748 games
- UCF 34, Georgia State 3044 games
- UCF 37, Georgia State 2741 games
- Georgia State 30, UCF 2741 games
Where the edges are
Georgia State offense vs UCF defenseOffense +3.9Defense +2.0Edge Georgia State: its offense is 1.9 points better than UCF's defense.
UCF offense vs Georgia State defenseOffense +2.7Defense -3.7Edge UCF: its offense is 6.4 points better than Georgia State's defense.
| Stat | Georgia State | UCF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.8% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.9 | 32.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.