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Georgia Tech vs Louisville prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Georgia Tech
GT 25% win75% LOU
28Projected39If GT upsets
vs
39Projected29If GT upsetsHome
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Record 2–5 · #108 in ratings
Away
Louisville Cardinals
Record 4–3 · #29 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (51)
Starts at 51, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | GT | LOU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 69 | 77 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog25%Georgia Tech wins at home
At a neutral site19% ▼
Georgia Tech: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Duke 28–25)
Louisville: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (NC State 28–31)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Georgia Tech won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- LOU 37, GT 2746 games
- LOU 44, GT 2744 games
- LOU 41, GT 2342 games
- LOU 34, GT 3041 games
- LOU 37, GT 3440 games
- Power index
- 22 vs 80
- Projected
- LOU favored
- Differential
- 10.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Georgia Tech, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Georgia Tech.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Louisville by 10.6
- Projected total
- 67.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.7%
- Georgia Tech wins by 21+
- 2.9%
- Louisville wins by 21+
- 26.5%
- Median score
- 27–38
- Model expectation
- 27.9–38.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia Tech wins, bars on the left are Louisville wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Georgia Tech offense vs Louisville defenseOffense -0.2Defense -0.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
Louisville offense vs Georgia Tech defenseOffense +7.9Defense -6.5Edge Louisville: its offense is 14.4 points better than Georgia Tech's defense.
| Stat | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.7% | 48.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3% | 41.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.7 | 38.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 27.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.