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Georgia vs Florida prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at a neutral site
UGA 67% win33% FLA
35Projected27If FLA upsets
vs
29Projected37If FLA upsetsNeutral site
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 6–1 · #7 in ratings
Neutral site
Florida Gators
Record 5–2 · #30 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | UGA | FLA | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 53 | 75 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog33%Florida wins at a neutral site
If Florida plays at home39% ▲
Florida: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (Texas 27–24, Ole Miss 52–28)
Georgia: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Auburn 24–27)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Florida won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UGA 37, FLA 2757 games
- UGA 34, FLA 2747 games
- UGA 30, FLA 2744 games
- UGA 37, FLA 3042 games
- UGA 34, FLA 3040 games
- Power index
- 96 vs 79
- Projected
- UGA favored
- Differential
- 6.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at a neutral site.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia by 6.8
- Projected total
- 64.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Georgia wins by 21+
- 18.2%
- Florida wins by 21+
- 3.4%
- Median score
- 35–28
- Model expectation
- 35.1–28.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia wins, bars on the left are Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Georgia offense vs Florida defenseOffense +8.3Defense -1.0Edge Georgia: its offense is 9.3 points better than Florida's defense.
Florida offense vs Georgia defenseOffense +7.9Defense +5.3Edge Florida: its offense is 2.7 points better than Georgia's defense.
| Stat | Georgia | Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.33 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.00 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 53.1% | 45.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 43.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 43.0 | 39.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.9 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
