Loading the matchup…
Georgia vs Western Kentucky prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
UGA 95% win5% WKU
37Projected
vs
15ProjectedNeutral site
Georgia Bulldogs
Record 6–1 · #7 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 96 vs 14
- Projected
- UGA favored
- Differential
- 22.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Georgia by 22.1
- Projected total
- 52.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 14.1%
- Went to overtime
- 0.9%
- Georgia wins by 21+
- 54.9%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 0.2%
- Median score
- 37–14
- Model expectation
- 37.3–15.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Georgia wins, bars on the left are Western Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Georgia 37, Western Kentucky 1076 games
- Georgia 34, Western Kentucky 1775 games
- Georgia 44, Western Kentucky 1071 games
- Georgia 37, Western Kentucky 1769 games
- Georgia 41, Western Kentucky 1068 games
- Georgia 34, Western Kentucky 1066 games
Where the edges are
Georgia offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense +8.3Defense -3.3Edge Georgia: its offense is 11.5 points better than Western Kentucky's defense.
Western Kentucky offense vs Georgia defenseOffense -5.2Defense +5.3Edge Georgia: its defense is 10.5 points better than Western Kentucky's offense.
| Stat | Georgia | Western Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.33 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.00 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 53.1% | 36.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 43.0 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.9 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.