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Hawai'i vs New Mexico State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
HAW 43% win57% NMSU
24Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Record 2–6 · #114 in ratings
Neutral site
New Mexico State Aggies
Record 3–4 · #100 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 18 vs 28
- Projected
- NMSU favored
- Differential
- 2.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico State by 2.4
- Projected total
- 50.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Hawai'i wins by 21+
- 6.4%
- New Mexico State wins by 21+
- 11.4%
- Median score
- 24–26
- Model expectation
- 23.7–26
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Hawai'i wins, bars on the left are New Mexico State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- New Mexico State 27, Hawai'i 2358 games
- Hawai'i 24, New Mexico State 2058 games
- New Mexico State 27, Hawai'i 2456 games
- New Mexico State 27, Hawai'i 2051 games
- New Mexico State 20, Hawai'i 1750 games
- Hawai'i 27, New Mexico State 2049 games
Where the edges are
Hawai'i offense vs New Mexico State defenseOffense -5.5Defense -3.4Edge New Mexico State: its defense is 2.1 points better than Hawai'i's offense.
New Mexico State offense vs Hawai'i defenseOffense -1.8Defense -2.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Hawai'i | New Mexico State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 38.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.8 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.