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Hawai'i vs North Dakota State prediction
Kickoff Sat 10:00 PM CT, at Hawai'i
HAW 21% win79% NDSU
15Projected25If HAW upsets
vs
27Projected16If HAW upsetsHome
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Record 2–6 · #114 in ratings
Away
North Dakota State Bison
Record 6–2 · #31 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | HAW | NDSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 58 | 60 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert21%Hawai'i wins at home
At a neutral site14% ▼
Hawai'i: 1 win over a higher-rated team (New Mexico State 29–19)
North Dakota State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (UNLV 7–13)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Hawai'i won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NDSU 20, HAW 1089 games
- NDSU 27, HAW 1087 games
- NDSU 24, HAW 1480 games
- NDSU 24, HAW 1779 games
- NDSU 27, HAW 1779 games
- Power index
- 18 vs 78
- Projected
- NDSU favored
- Differential
- 11.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Hawai'i, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 10:00 PM CT, at Hawai'i.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- North Dakota State by 11.5
- Projected total
- 41.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Hawai'i wins by 21+
- 1.5%
- North Dakota State wins by 21+
- 25.7%
- Median score
- 14–27
- Model expectation
- 14.9–26.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Hawai'i wins, bars on the left are North Dakota State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Hawai'i offense vs North Dakota State defenseOffense -5.5Defense +6.8Edge North Dakota State: its defense is 12.3 points better than Hawai'i's offense.
North Dakota State offense vs Hawai'i defenseOffense +0.0Defense -2.0Edge North Dakota State: its offense is 2.0 points better than Hawai'i's defense.
| Stat | Hawai'i | North Dakota State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | -0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 39.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 35.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.8 | 27.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5 | 12.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
