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Hawai'i vs Stanford prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
HAW 53% win47% STAN
25Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Record 2–6 · #114 in ratings
Neutral site
Stanford Cardinal
Record 4–4 · #121 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 18 vs 12
- Projected
- HAW favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Hawai'i by 1.1
- Projected total
- 47.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.5%
- Hawai'i wins by 21+
- 10.0%
- Stanford wins by 21+
- 7.8%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 24.1–23
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Hawai'i wins, bars on the left are Stanford wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Stanford 24, Hawai'i 2077 games
- Hawai'i 24, Stanford 1776 games
- Hawai'i 20, Stanford 1770 games
- Hawai'i 27, Stanford 2462 games
- Hawai'i 27, Stanford 1761 games
- Hawai'i 24, Stanford 2056 games
Where the edges are
Hawai'i offense vs Stanford defenseOffense -5.5Defense -3.9Edge Stanford: its defense is 1.7 points better than Hawai'i's offense.
Stanford offense vs Hawai'i defenseOffense -4.8Defense -2.0Edge Hawai'i: its defense is 2.7 points better than Stanford's offense.
| Stat | Hawai'i | Stanford | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.31 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 47.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.8 | 19.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.5 | 35.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.