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Houston vs Oregon State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
HOU 55% win45% ORST
30Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Houston Cougars
Record 6–2 · #15 in ratings
Neutral site
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 90 vs 83
- Projected
- HOU favored
- Differential
- 1.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Houston by 1.8
- Projected total
- 58.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Houston wins by 21+
- 11.2%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 7.3%
- Median score
- 30–28
- Model expectation
- 29.9–28.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Houston wins, bars on the left are Oregon State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Houston 30, Oregon State 2751 games
- Oregon State 30, Houston 2750 games
- Oregon State 27, Houston 2049 games
- Houston 27, Oregon State 2448 games
- Houston 34, Oregon State 3047 games
- Houston 34, Oregon State 2747 games
Where the edges are
Houston offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense +4.7Defense +0.6Edge Houston: its offense is 4.1 points better than Oregon State's defense.
Oregon State offense vs Houston defenseOffense +7.5Defense +5.2Edge Oregon State: its offense is 2.3 points better than Houston's defense.
| Stat | Houston | Oregon State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.32 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.9% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 40.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.0 | 42.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 23.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.