Loading the matchup…
Houston vs Texas Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
HOU 52% win48% TTU
28Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Houston Cougars
Record 6–2 · #15 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 90 vs 86
- Projected
- HOU favored
- Differential
- 0.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Houston by 0.9
- Projected total
- 54.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Houston wins by 21+
- 10.5%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 8.1%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 27.7–26.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Houston wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas Tech 27, Houston 2051 games
- Houston 27, Texas Tech 2350 games
- Houston 27, Texas Tech 2050 games
- Houston 31, Texas Tech 2447 games
- Texas Tech 31, Houston 2747 games
- Texas Tech 24, Houston 2047 games
Where the edges are
Houston offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +4.7Defense +2.8Edge Houston: its offense is 1.9 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
Texas Tech offense vs Houston defenseOffense +5.9Defense +5.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Houston | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.9% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.0 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.