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Houston vs Utah prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
HOU 47% win54% UTAH
26Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Houston Cougars
Record 6–2 · #15 in ratings
Neutral site
Utah Utes
Record 7–0 · #12 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 90 vs 92
- Projected
- UTAH favored
- Differential
- 1.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Utah by 1.2
- Projected total
- 52.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Houston wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Utah wins by 21+
- 9.7%
- Median score
- 24–27
- Model expectation
- 25.4–26.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Houston wins, bars on the left are Utah wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Houston 27, Utah 2069 games
- Utah 27, Houston 2066 games
- Utah 27, Houston 2458 games
- Houston 24, Utah 2356 games
- Utah 34, Houston 2753 games
- Utah 27, Houston 1752 games
Where the edges are
Houston offense vs Utah defenseOffense +4.7Defense +5.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Utah offense vs Houston defenseOffense +5.9Defense +5.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Houston | Utah | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.29 | 0.30 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 51.9% | 50.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 35.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.0 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0 | 14.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.