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Illinois vs Maryland prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Maryland
ILL 59% win41% MD
31Projected
vs
28ProjectedAway
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 4–3 · #57 in ratings
Home
Maryland Terrapins
Record 2–5 · #97 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 59 vs 30
- Projected
- ILL favored
- Differential
- 3.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Maryland, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Maryland.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Illinois by 3.3
- Projected total
- 59.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Illinois wins by 21+
- 13.2%
- Maryland wins by 21+
- 5.9%
- Median score
- 31–27
- Model expectation
- 30.8–27.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Illinois wins, bars on the left are Maryland wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Illinois 30, Maryland 2762 games
- Illinois 34, Maryland 2760 games
- Illinois 34, Maryland 3152 games
- Maryland 34, Illinois 3052 games
- Illinois 34, Maryland 3051 games
- Illinois 27, Maryland 2048 games
Where the edges are
Illinois offense vs Maryland defenseOffense +3.2Defense -3.4Edge Illinois: its offense is 6.6 points better than Maryland's defense.
Maryland offense vs Illinois defenseOffense -0.9Defense -1.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Illinois | Maryland | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.28 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.6% | 39.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 45.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.3 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 33.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.