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Illinois vs Northwestern prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northwestern
ILL 22% win78% NU
23Projected33If ILL upsets
vs
34Projected24If ILL upsetsAway
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 4–3 · #57 in ratings
Home
Northwestern Wildcats
Record 6–1 · #17 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ILL | NU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 38 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert22%Illinois wins on the road
If Illinois plays at home37% ▲
Illinois: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Oregon 21–10)
Northwestern: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Illinois won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- NU 34, ILL 1761 games
- NU 34, ILL 2457 games
- NU 34, ILL 2056 games
- NU 27, ILL 2054 games
- NU 34, ILL 2753 games
- Power index
- 59 vs 88
- Projected
- NU favored
- Differential
- 10.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Northwestern, luck set to low. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Northwestern.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Northwestern by 10.9
- Projected total
- 57.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.2%
- Went to overtime
- 2.4%
- Illinois wins by 21+
- 1.5%
- Northwestern wins by 21+
- 25.6%
- Median score
- 23–34
- Model expectation
- 23–33.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Illinois wins, bars on the left are Northwestern wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Illinois offense vs Northwestern defenseOffense +3.2Defense +4.4Edge Northwestern: its defense is 1.2 points better than Illinois's offense.
Northwestern offense vs Illinois defenseOffense +5.4Defense -1.2Edge Northwestern: its offense is 6.6 points better than Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Illinois | Northwestern | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.35 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.28 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.6% | 51.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.3 | 34.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 16.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
