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Illinois vs Purdue prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ILL 55% win45% PUR
34Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 4–3 · #57 in ratings
Neutral site
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 59 vs 51
- Projected
- ILL favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Illinois by 1.7
- Projected total
- 66.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Illinois wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 7.7%
- Median score
- 34–32
- Model expectation
- 33.8–32.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Illinois wins, bars on the left are Purdue wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Purdue 30, Illinois 2746 games
- Illinois 37, Purdue 3046 games
- Illinois 34, Purdue 3044 games
- Purdue 34, Illinois 3044 games
- Purdue 34, Illinois 2743 games
- Purdue 27, Illinois 2340 games
Where the edges are
Illinois offense vs Purdue defenseOffense +3.2Defense -4.8Edge Illinois: its offense is 8.0 points better than Purdue's defense.
Purdue offense vs Illinois defenseOffense +5.2Defense -1.2Edge Purdue: its offense is 6.4 points better than Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Illinois | Purdue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.28 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.6% | 45.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.3 | 31.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.