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Illinois vs UAB prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ILL 71% win29% UAB
30Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 4–3 · #57 in ratings
Neutral site
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 59 vs 26
- Projected
- ILL favored
- Differential
- 8.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Illinois by 8.2
- Projected total
- 52.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Illinois wins by 21+
- 20.4%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 2.9%
- Median score
- 30–21
- Model expectation
- 30–21.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Illinois wins, bars on the left are UAB wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Illinois 27, UAB 1767 games
- Illinois 27, UAB 2059 games
- Illinois 34, UAB 1758 games
- Illinois 34, UAB 2057 games
- UAB 31, Illinois 2752 games
- Illinois 34, UAB 2451 games
Where the edges are
Illinois offense vs UAB defenseOffense +3.2Defense -1.1Edge Illinois: its offense is 4.2 points better than UAB's defense.
UAB offense vs Illinois defenseOffense -5.1Defense -1.2Edge Illinois: its defense is 3.9 points better than UAB's offense.
| Stat | Illinois | UAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.28 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.6% | 41.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 43.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.3 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.