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Illinois vs UCLA prediction
Kickoff Fri 8:00 PM CT, at UCLA
ILL 18% win82% UCLA
20Projected31If ILL upsets
vs
33Projected22If ILL upsetsAway
Illinois Fighting Illini
Record 4–3 · #57 in ratings
Home
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (56)
Starts at 56, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ILL | UCLA | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.3 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 38 | 80 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert18%Illinois wins on the road
If Illinois plays at home30% ▲
Illinois: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Oregon 21–10)
UCLA: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Illinois won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UCLA 27, ILL 1764 games
- UCLA 27, ILL 2054 games
- UCLA 34, ILL 2054 games
- UCLA 31, ILL 1754 games
- UCLA 30, ILL 1754 games
- Power index
- 59 vs 95
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 13.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UCLA, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 8:00 PM CT, at UCLA.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 13.5
- Projected total
- 52.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.2%
- Illinois wins by 21+
- 1.3%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 32.5%
- Median score
- 20–33
- Model expectation
- 19.5–33
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Illinois wins, bars on the left are UCLA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Illinois offense vs UCLA defenseOffense +3.2Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 4.8 points better than Illinois's offense.
UCLA offense vs Illinois defenseOffense +4.5Defense -1.2Edge UCLA: its offense is 5.7 points better than Illinois's defense.
| Stat | Illinois | UCLA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.21 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.28 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.6% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% | 33.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 30.3 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.