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Indiana vs Minnesota prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Indiana
IU 93% win7% MINN
29Projected
vs
10ProjectedHome
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Away
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Record 5–2 · #79 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 96 vs 43
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 19.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Indiana, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at Indiana.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 19.0
- Projected total
- 38.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 18.8%
- Went to overtime
- 1.8%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 44.2%
- Minnesota wins by 21+
- 0.2%
- Median score
- 27–7
- Model expectation
- 28.4–9.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are Minnesota wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Indiana 27, Minnesota 7145 games
- Indiana 24, Minnesota 7117 games
- Indiana 20, Minnesota 0109 games
- Indiana 20, Minnesota 7108 games
- Indiana 30, Minnesota 7104 games
- Indiana 30, Minnesota 0103 games
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs Minnesota defenseOffense +3.2Defense +2.1Edge Indiana: its offense is 1.1 points better than Minnesota's defense.
Minnesota offense vs Indiana defenseOffense -3.4Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 14.8 points better than Minnesota's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | Minnesota | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 39.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.