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Indiana vs North Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
IU 75% win25% UNT
35Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Neutral site
North Texas Mean Green
Record 5–2 · #41 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 96 vs 71
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 10.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 10.1
- Projected total
- 59.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 24.8%
- North Texas wins by 21+
- 2.2%
- Median score
- 34–24
- Model expectation
- 34.6–24.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are North Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Indiana 30, North Texas 2051 games
- Indiana 34, North Texas 1749 games
- Indiana 44, North Texas 2049 games
- Indiana 37, North Texas 2748 games
- Indiana 37, North Texas 2448 games
- Indiana 34, North Texas 2748 games
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs North Texas defenseOffense +3.2Defense -5.6Edge Indiana: its offense is 8.8 points better than North Texas's defense.
North Texas offense vs Indiana defenseOffense +10.1Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 1.3 points better than North Texas's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | North Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.37 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 49.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 44.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 43.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.