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Indiana vs Ohio State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
IU 46% win54% OSU
21Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 96 vs 97
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 1.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 1.4
- Projected total
- 42.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 46.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 6.0%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 8.5%
- Median score
- 20–21
- Model expectation
- 20.3–21.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are Ohio State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Indiana 24, Ohio State 2088 games
- Ohio State 24, Indiana 2082 games
- Ohio State 24, Indiana 1781 games
- Ohio State 20, Indiana 1781 games
- Ohio State 27, Indiana 1771 games
- Ohio State 20, Indiana 1066 games
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense +3.2Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 5.4 points better than Indiana's offense.
Ohio State offense vs Indiana defenseOffense +7.3Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 4.1 points better than Ohio State's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | Ohio State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.27 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 50.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 35.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 39.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 13.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.