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Indiana vs Rutgers prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
IU 94% win6% RUTG
36Projected
vs
15ProjectedNeutral site
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Neutral site
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 96 vs 23
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 21.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 21.4
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 15.9%
- Went to overtime
- 1.0%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 52.4%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Median score
- 36–14
- Model expectation
- 36–14.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are Rutgers wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Indiana 41, Rutgers 772 games
- Indiana 34, Rutgers 1070 games
- Indiana 34, Rutgers 1768 games
- Indiana 37, Rutgers 766 games
- Indiana 30, Rutgers 1765 games
- Indiana 37, Rutgers 1463 games
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense +3.2Defense -7.0Edge Indiana: its offense is 10.2 points better than Rutgers's defense.
Rutgers offense vs Indiana defenseOffense +0.4Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 11.0 points better than Rutgers's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | Rutgers | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.10 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | 0.29 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 49.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 28.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 33.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.