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Indiana vs USC prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Indiana
IU 81% win19% USC
31Projected21If USC upsets
vs
19Projected29If USC upsetsHome
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Away
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | IU | USC | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 33 | 55 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert19%USC wins on the road
If USC plays at home34% ▲
USC: no wins over higher-rated teams in 8 FBS games
Indiana: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games USC won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- IU 34, USC 1778 games
- IU 30, USC 1778 games
- IU 27, USC 1774 games
- IU 27, USC 2071 games
- IU 27, USC 1063 games
- Power index
- 96 vs 77
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 11.8 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Indiana, luck set to low. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Indiana.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 11.8
- Projected total
- 50.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 26.3%
- USC wins by 21+
- 1.0%
- Median score
- 31–19
- Model expectation
- 30.7–19
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs USC defenseOffense +3.2Defense -0.2Edge Indiana: its offense is 3.5 points better than USC's defense.
USC offense vs Indiana defenseOffense +6.1Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 5.3 points better than USC's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.