Loading the matchup…
Indiana vs Washington prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Washington
IU 82% win18% WASH
29Projected18If WASH upsets
vs
16Projected26If WASH upsetsAway
Indiana Hoosiers
Record 7–1 · #6 in ratings
Home
Washington Huskies
Record 4–3 · #77 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (45)
Starts at 45, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | IU | WASH | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 33 | 67 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert18%Washington wins at home
At a neutral site14% ▼
Washington: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Purdue 38–26)
Indiana: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Washington won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- IU 27, WASH 1086 games
- IU 20, WASH 1785 games
- IU 27, WASH 1771 games
- IU 34, WASH 1770 games
- IU 27, WASH 770 games
- Power index
- 96 vs 45
- Projected
- IU favored
- Differential
- 12.6 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Washington, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Washington.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Indiana by 12.6
- Projected total
- 44.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Indiana wins by 21+
- 27.8%
- Washington wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 28–16
- Model expectation
- 28.4–16
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Indiana wins, bars on the left are Washington wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Indiana offense vs Washington defenseOffense +3.2Defense -0.9Edge Indiana: its offense is 4.1 points better than Washington's defense.
Washington offense vs Indiana defenseOffense +0.1Defense +11.4Edge Indiana: its defense is 11.3 points better than Washington's offense.
| Stat | Indiana | Washington | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.30 | 0.14 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.04 | -0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.3% | 43.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9% | 39.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.6 | 27.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 12.0 | 22.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
