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Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Iowa State
ISU 54% win46% KSU
25Projected19If KSU upsets
vs
24Projected30If KSU upsetsHome
Iowa State Cyclones
Record 3–4 · #76 in ratings
Away
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 4–3 · #60 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ISU | KSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 46 | 37 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up46%Kansas State wins on the road
If Kansas State plays at home63% ▲
Kansas State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Iowa State: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kansas State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ISU 24, KSU 2070 games
- ISU 20, KSU 1764 games
- ISU 27, KSU 2463 games
- KSU 27, ISU 2461 games
- KSU 24, ISU 2059 games
- Power index
- 45 vs 57
- Projected
- ISU favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Iowa State, luck set to low. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Iowa State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Iowa State by 1.1
- Projected total
- 48.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- Iowa State wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Kansas State wins by 21+
- 6.9%
- Median score
- 24–23
- Model expectation
- 24.5–23.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Iowa State wins, bars on the left are Kansas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Iowa State offense vs Kansas State defenseOffense -1.6Defense +1.2Edge Kansas State: its defense is 2.7 points better than Iowa State's offense.
Kansas State offense vs Iowa State defenseOffense -0.0Defense +0.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Iowa State | Kansas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.14 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.1% | 45.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4% | 36.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.9 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
