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Iowa State vs West Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ISU 47% win53% WVU
31.5Projected
vs
32.3ProjectedNeutral site
Iowa State Cyclones
Record 3–4 · #76 in ratings
Neutral site
West Virginia Mountaineers
Record 5–3 · #67 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 45 vs 52
- Projected
- WVU favored
- Differential
- 0.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- West Virginia by 0.8
- Projected total
- 63.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.4%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Iowa State wins by 21+
- 9.5%
- West Virginia wins by 21+
- 10.9%
- Median score
- 31–32
- Model expectation
- 31–32.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Iowa State wins, bars on the left are West Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- West Virginia 27, Iowa State 2047 games
- West Virginia 34, Iowa State 2746 games
- West Virginia 34, Iowa State 3045 games
- West Virginia 30, Iowa State 2743 games
- Iowa State 30, West Virginia 2742 games
- West Virginia 37, Iowa State 2740 games
Where the edges are
Iowa State offense vs West Virginia defenseOffense -1.6Defense -6.7Edge Iowa State: its offense is 5.2 points better than West Virginia's defense.
West Virginia offense vs Iowa State defenseOffense +7.2Defense +0.8Edge West Virginia: its offense is 6.4 points better than Iowa State's defense.
| Stat | Iowa State | West Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.13 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.1% | 42.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.9 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.1 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.