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Iowa vs Wisconsin prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Iowa
IOWA 47% win53% WIS
18Projected
vs
19ProjectedHome
Iowa Hawkeyes
Record 5–2 · #44 in ratings
Away
Wisconsin Badgers
Record 5–2 · #23 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 69 vs 84
- Projected
- WIS favored
- Differential
- 1.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Iowa, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Iowa.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wisconsin by 1.0
- Projected total
- 37.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 47.7%
- Went to overtime
- 5.8%
- Iowa wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Wisconsin wins by 21+
- 7.8%
- Median score
- 17–19
- Model expectation
- 17.8–18.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Iowa wins, bars on the left are Wisconsin wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Iowa 17, Wisconsin 1096 games
- Wisconsin 17, Iowa 1094 games
- Iowa 24, Wisconsin 1786 games
- Wisconsin 20, Iowa 1785 games
- Iowa 13, Wisconsin 1081 games
- Iowa 17, Wisconsin 1379 games
Where the edges are
Iowa offense vs Wisconsin defenseOffense -2.0Defense +7.5Edge Wisconsin: its defense is 9.4 points better than Iowa's offense.
Wisconsin offense vs Iowa defenseOffense +0.8Defense +6.2Edge Iowa: its defense is 5.4 points better than Wisconsin's offense.
| Stat | Iowa | Wisconsin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | -0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.5% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.0 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 14.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.