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Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JXST 68% win32% KENN
27Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Neutral site
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 41 vs 16
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 6.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 6.5
- Projected total
- 46.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 16.0%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- Median score
- 27–20
- Model expectation
- 26.2–19.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are Kennesaw State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Jacksonville State 20, Kennesaw State 1785 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 1783 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Kennesaw State 1782 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Kennesaw State 2073 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 1066 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 2060 games
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -0.2Defense -0.6Even: neither side has a real edge.
Kennesaw State offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -7.7Defense -1.7Edge Jacksonville State: its defense is 6.0 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Kennesaw State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.07 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 42.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 43.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 20.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.