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Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JXST 62% win38% MTSU
28Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Neutral site
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 41 vs 23
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 4.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 4.4
- Projected total
- 52.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 14.0%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 4.6%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 28–23.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are Middle Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Jacksonville State 27, Middle Tennessee 1764 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Middle Tennessee 2062 games
- Jacksonville State 31, Middle Tennessee 2758 games
- Jacksonville State 24, Middle Tennessee 2056 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Middle Tennessee 2453 games
- Middle Tennessee 31, Jacksonville State 2753 games
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense -0.2Defense -2.4Edge Jacksonville State: its offense is 2.2 points better than Middle Tennessee's defense.
Middle Tennessee offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -3.9Defense -1.7Edge Jacksonville State: its defense is 2.2 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Middle Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.