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Jacksonville State vs Missouri State prediction
Kickoff Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Jacksonville State
JXST 81% win19% MOST
36Projected26If MOST upsets
vs
23Projected34If MOST upsetsHome
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Away
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (51)
Starts at 51, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | JXST | MOST | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 61 | 71 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert19%Missouri State wins on the road
If Missouri State plays at home33% ▲
Missouri State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Kennesaw State 24–21)
Jacksonville State: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Missouri State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- JXST 37, MOST 2453 games
- JXST 37, MOST 1751 games
- JXST 44, MOST 2051 games
- JXST 27, MOST 2048 games
- JXST 34, MOST 2448 games
- Power index
- 41 vs 6
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 12.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Jacksonville State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 1:00 PM CT, at Jacksonville State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 12.5
- Projected total
- 59.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 29.2%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- Median score
- 36–23
- Model expectation
- 35.8–23.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are Missouri State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense -0.2Defense -8.7Edge Jacksonville State: its offense is 8.5 points better than Missouri State's defense.
Missouri State offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -2.7Defense -1.7Edge Jacksonville State: its defense is 1.0 points better than Missouri State's offense.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Missouri State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 34.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.