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Jacksonville State vs Ohio prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JXST 48% win52% OHIO
27Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio Bobcats
Record 6–2 · #80 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 41 vs 42
- Projected
- OHIO favored
- Differential
- 0.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio by 0.6
- Projected total
- 54.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.5%
- Went to overtime
- 4.0%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 7.7%
- Ohio wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 26.5–27.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are Ohio wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio 34, Jacksonville State 2757 games
- Ohio 27, Jacksonville State 2457 games
- Ohio 31, Jacksonville State 2755 games
- Ohio 27, Jacksonville State 2054 games
- Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 2453 games
- Jacksonville State 31, Ohio 2753 games
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs Ohio defenseOffense -0.2Defense -0.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
Ohio offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -0.4Defense -1.7Edge Ohio: its offense is 1.4 points better than Jacksonville State's defense.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Ohio | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 48.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 29.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 21.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.