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Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:00 PM CT, at Jacksonville State
JXST 79% win21% SHSU
29Projected19If SHSU upsets
vs
18Projected28If SHSU upsetsHome
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Record 5–2 · #82 in ratings
Away
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | JXST | SHSU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 61 | 75 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert21%Sam Houston wins on the road
If Sam Houston plays at home34% ▲
Sam Houston: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Jacksonville State: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Sam Houston won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- JXST 27, SHSU 1779 games
- JXST 24, SHSU 1771 games
- JXST 27, SHSU 1062 games
- JXST 24, SHSU 1062 games
- JXST 20, SHSU 1761 games
- Power index
- 41 vs 9
- Projected
- JXST favored
- Differential
- 11.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Jacksonville State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:00 PM CT, at Jacksonville State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Jacksonville State by 11.7
- Projected total
- 46.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Jacksonville State wins by 21+
- 27.3%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- Median score
- 29–17
- Model expectation
- 29–17.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Jacksonville State wins, bars on the left are Sam Houston wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Jacksonville State offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense -0.2Defense -1.9Edge Jacksonville State: its offense is 1.7 points better than Sam Houston's defense.
Sam Houston offense vs Jacksonville State defenseOffense -8.7Defense -1.7Edge Jacksonville State: its defense is 7.0 points better than Sam Houston's offense.
| Stat | Jacksonville State | Sam Houston | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.18 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 37.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 27.3 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.7 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
