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James Madison vs Liberty prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JMU 53% win47% LIB
26Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Neutral site
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 82
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 0.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 0.9
- Projected total
- 50.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.2%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 9.3%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Median score
- 24–24
- Model expectation
- 25.4–24.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are Liberty wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 24, Liberty 2063 games
- James Madison 31, Liberty 2758 games
- James Madison 20, Liberty 1756 games
- Liberty 20, James Madison 1756 games
- James Madison 27, Liberty 1756 games
- Liberty 24, James Madison 2055 games
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs Liberty defenseOffense +5.4Defense +5.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
Liberty offense vs James Madison defenseOffense +1.7Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 1.4 points better than Liberty's offense.
| Stat | James Madison | Liberty | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | 0.20 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 47.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 33.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 14.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.