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James Madison vs Marshall prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JMU 90% win10% MRSH
36Projected
vs
17ProjectedNeutral site
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Neutral site
Marshall Thundering Herd
Record 4–3 · #125 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 9
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 18.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 18.9
- Projected total
- 52.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 20.5%
- Went to overtime
- 1.5%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 46.0%
- Marshall wins by 21+
- 0.4%
- Median score
- 35–16
- Model expectation
- 35.5–16.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are Marshall wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 27, Marshall 1759 games
- James Madison 37, Marshall 1059 games
- James Madison 37, Marshall 1459 games
- James Madison 34, Marshall 1757 games
- James Madison 37, Marshall 1752 games
- James Madison 34, Marshall 1052 games
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs Marshall defenseOffense +5.4Defense -4.4Edge James Madison: its offense is 9.8 points better than Marshall's defense.
Marshall offense vs James Madison defenseOffense -6.0Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 9.2 points better than Marshall's offense.
| Stat | James Madison | Marshall | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.25 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 45.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 43.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 21.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.