Loading the matchup…
James Madison vs Old Dominion prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JMU 92% win9% ODU
33Projected
vs
13ProjectedNeutral site
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Neutral site
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 7
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 19.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 19.7
- Projected total
- 46.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 18.4%
- Went to overtime
- 1.2%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 47.4%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Median score
- 33–13
- Model expectation
- 32.8–13.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are Old Dominion wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 34, Old Dominion 781 games
- James Madison 30, Old Dominion 1073 games
- James Madison 37, Old Dominion 771 games
- James Madison 41, Old Dominion 1070 games
- James Madison 27, Old Dominion 769 games
- James Madison 41, Old Dominion 768 games
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense +5.4Defense -1.6Edge James Madison: its offense is 7.0 points better than Old Dominion's defense.
Old Dominion offense vs James Madison defenseOffense -9.5Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 12.7 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
| Stat | James Madison | Old Dominion | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | -0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.03 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 30.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 39.5% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 15.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 26.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.