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James Madison vs San Diego State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
JMU 83% win17% SDSU
36Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Neutral site
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 25
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 14.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 14.9
- Projected total
- 57.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.5%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 36.4%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 1.4%
- Median score
- 36–21
- Model expectation
- 36.2–21.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are San Diego State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- James Madison 37, San Diego State 1761 games
- James Madison 34, San Diego State 1754 games
- James Madison 34, San Diego State 1049 games
- James Madison 34, San Diego State 2747 games
- James Madison 34, San Diego State 2446 games
- James Madison 30, San Diego State 2045 games
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense +5.4Defense -5.0Edge James Madison: its offense is 10.4 points better than San Diego State's defense.
San Diego State offense vs James Madison defenseOffense -1.2Defense +3.1Edge James Madison: its defense is 4.3 points better than San Diego State's offense.
| Stat | James Madison | San Diego State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 36.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 48.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 26.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.