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James Madison vs UConn prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at UConn
JMU 63% win37% CONN
32Projected24If CONN upsets
vs
27Projected35If CONN upsetsAway
James Madison Dukes
Record 7–1 · #21 in ratings
Home
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | JMU | CONN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 74 | 82 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog37%UConn wins at home
At a neutral site31% ▼
UConn: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
James Madison: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (App State 31–34)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games UConn won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- JMU 34, CONN 2758 games
- JMU 27, CONN 2449 games
- JMU 31, CONN 2748 games
- JMU 27, CONN 2045 games
- JMU 34, CONN 2444 games
- Power index
- 85 vs 56
- Projected
- JMU favored
- Differential
- 5.0 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UConn, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at UConn.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- James Madison by 5.0
- Projected total
- 58.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- James Madison wins by 21+
- 16.4%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Median score
- 31–27
- Model expectation
- 31.3–26.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are James Madison wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
James Madison offense vs UConn defenseOffense +5.4Defense -1.6Edge James Madison: its offense is 7.0 points better than UConn's defense.
UConn offense vs James Madison defenseOffense +2.4Defense +3.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | James Madison | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.23 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.02 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.6% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.5% | 41.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.4 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.3 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.