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Kansas vs Kansas State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KU 47% win53% KSU
25Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Neutral site
Kansas State Wildcats
Record 4–3 · #60 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 49 vs 57
- Projected
- KSU favored
- Differential
- 1.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kansas State by 1.1
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 7.5%
- Kansas State wins by 21+
- 9.6%
- Median score
- 24–26
- Model expectation
- 24.6–25.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kansas wins, bars on the left are Kansas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kansas State 20, Kansas 1764 games
- Kansas State 27, Kansas 1762 games
- Kansas 24, Kansas State 2060 games
- Kansas State 24, Kansas 2057 games
- Kansas State 27, Kansas 2454 games
- Kansas 27, Kansas State 2454 games
Where the edges are
Kansas offense vs Kansas State defenseOffense +0.0Defense +1.2Edge Kansas State: its defense is 1.1 points better than Kansas's offense.
Kansas State offense vs Kansas defenseOffense -0.0Defense +0.1Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Kansas | Kansas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.7% | 45.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2% | 36.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.0 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.