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Kansas vs Middle Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KU 67% win33% MTSU
29Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Neutral site
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Record 4–3 · #106 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 49 vs 23
- Projected
- KU favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kansas by 6.6
- Projected total
- 50.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 18.0%
- Middle Tennessee wins by 21+
- 3.4%
- Median score
- 28–21
- Model expectation
- 28.2–21.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kansas wins, bars on the left are Middle Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kansas 27, Middle Tennessee 1768 games
- Kansas 31, Middle Tennessee 2454 games
- Kansas 24, Middle Tennessee 2054 games
- Middle Tennessee 24, Kansas 2053 games
- Kansas 27, Middle Tennessee 2051 games
- Kansas 31, Middle Tennessee 2750 games
Where the edges are
Kansas offense vs Middle Tennessee defenseOffense +0.0Defense -2.4Edge Kansas: its offense is 2.4 points better than Middle Tennessee's defense.
Middle Tennessee offense vs Kansas defenseOffense -3.9Defense +0.1Edge Kansas: its defense is 4.0 points better than Middle Tennessee's offense.
| Stat | Kansas | Middle Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.15 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.7% | 41.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2% | 45.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.0 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.