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Kansas vs Missouri prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KU 31% win69% MIZ
22Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Neutral site
Missouri Tigers
Record 5–2 · #28 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 49 vs 80
- Projected
- MIZ favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Missouri by 7.1
- Projected total
- 50.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 3.2%
- Missouri wins by 21+
- 18.6%
- Median score
- 21–28
- Model expectation
- 21.2–28.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kansas wins, bars on the left are Missouri wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Missouri 27, Kansas 1769 games
- Missouri 24, Kansas 2062 games
- Kansas 24, Missouri 2058 games
- Missouri 27, Kansas 2056 games
- Missouri 24, Kansas 1753 games
- Missouri 30, Kansas 2052 games
Where the edges are
Kansas offense vs Missouri defenseOffense +0.0Defense +4.6Edge Missouri: its defense is 4.6 points better than Kansas's offense.
Missouri offense vs Kansas defenseOffense +2.6Defense +0.1Edge Missouri: its offense is 2.5 points better than Kansas's defense.
| Stat | Kansas | Missouri | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.17 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.7% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2% | 35.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.0 | 31.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.