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Kansas vs TCU prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at TCU
KU 32% win68% TCU
16Projected
vs
22ProjectedAway
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Home
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 49 vs 66
- Projected
- TCU favored
- Differential
- 6.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at TCU, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at TCU.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- TCU by 6.3
- Projected total
- 37.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 14.9%
- Median score
- 14–21
- Model expectation
- 15.4–21.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kansas wins, bars on the left are TCU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- TCU 17, Kansas 10107 games
- TCU 24, Kansas 17105 games
- TCU 24, Kansas 1099 games
- TCU 20, Kansas 1786 games
- TCU 20, Kansas 1084 games
- TCU 20, Kansas 1482 games
Where the edges are
Kansas offense vs TCU defenseOffense +0.0Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 8.8 points better than Kansas's offense.
TCU offense vs Kansas defenseOffense -5.2Defense +0.1Edge Kansas: its defense is 5.3 points better than TCU's offense.
| Stat | Kansas | TCU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.7% | 41.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2% | 34.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.0 | 23.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 13.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.