Loading the matchup…
Kennesaw State vs Liberty prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KENN 12% win88% LIB
12Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Neutral site
Liberty Flames
Record 6–1 · #26 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 16 vs 82
- Projected
- LIB favored
- Differential
- 15.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Liberty by 15.7
- Projected total
- 40.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.4%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 0.5%
- Liberty wins by 21+
- 35.8%
- Median score
- 10–27
- Model expectation
- 12.3–28.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kennesaw State wins, bars on the left are Liberty wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Liberty 27, Kennesaw State 7110 games
- Liberty 27, Kennesaw State 10110 games
- Liberty 20, Kennesaw State 7103 games
- Liberty 34, Kennesaw State 789 games
- Liberty 27, Kennesaw State 1485 games
- Liberty 24, Kennesaw State 781 games
Where the edges are
Kennesaw State offense vs Liberty defenseOffense -7.7Defense +5.7Edge Liberty: its defense is 13.5 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
Liberty offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense +1.7Defense -0.6Edge Liberty: its offense is 2.3 points better than Kennesaw State's defense.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Liberty | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.20 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 47.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 33.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 14.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.