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Kennesaw State vs Missouri State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KENN 59% win41% MOST
27Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Neutral site
Missouri State Bears
Record 2–5 · #130 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 16 vs 6
- Projected
- KENN favored
- Differential
- 3.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kennesaw State by 3.2
- Projected total
- 51.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 11.3%
- Missouri State wins by 21+
- 5.1%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 26.7–23.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kennesaw State wins, bars on the left are Missouri State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kennesaw State 27, Missouri State 2065 games
- Kennesaw State 24, Missouri State 2061 games
- Kennesaw State 27, Missouri State 1758 games
- Kennesaw State 20, Missouri State 1757 games
- Kennesaw State 34, Missouri State 2056 games
- Missouri State 24, Kennesaw State 2056 games
Where the edges are
Kennesaw State offense vs Missouri State defenseOffense -7.7Defense -8.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
Missouri State offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -2.7Defense -0.6Edge Kennesaw State: its defense is 2.1 points better than Missouri State's offense.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Missouri State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 49.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 34.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.