Loading the matchup…
Kennesaw State vs Tennessee prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KENN 8% win92% TENN
11Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Neutral site
Tennessee Volunteers
Record 6–2 · #14 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 16 vs 91
- Projected
- TENN favored
- Differential
- 18.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tennessee by 18.8
- Projected total
- 41.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 19.0%
- Went to overtime
- 1.5%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 0.3%
- Tennessee wins by 21+
- 44.3%
- Median score
- 10–30
- Model expectation
- 11.2–30
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kennesaw State wins, bars on the left are Tennessee wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tennessee 27, Kennesaw State 7126 games
- Tennessee 23, Kennesaw State 7102 games
- Tennessee 30, Kennesaw State 792 games
- Tennessee 31, Kennesaw State 790 games
- Tennessee 27, Kennesaw State 1090 games
- Tennessee 34, Kennesaw State 787 games
Where the edges are
Kennesaw State offense vs Tennessee defenseOffense -7.7Defense +6.8Edge Tennessee: its defense is 14.6 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
Tennessee offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense +3.6Defense -0.6Edge Tennessee: its offense is 4.2 points better than Kennesaw State's defense.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Tennessee | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 43.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 37.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 16.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.