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Kennesaw State vs Western Kentucky prediction
Kickoff Sat 12:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky
KENN 42% win58% WKU
20Projected27If KENN upsets
vs
23Projected16If KENN upsetsAway
Kennesaw State Owls
Record 1–6 · #116 in ratings
Home
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (47)
Starts at 47, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | KENN | WKU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 71 | 42 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up42%Kennesaw State wins on the road
If Kennesaw State plays at home60% ▲
Kennesaw State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 6 FBS games
Western Kentucky: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kennesaw State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- KENN 20, WKU 1781 games
- WKU 24, KENN 1778 games
- WKU 24, KENN 2076 games
- WKU 20, KENN 1776 games
- WKU 27, KENN 1774 games
- Power index
- 16 vs 14
- Projected
- WKU favored
- Differential
- 2.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Western Kentucky, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 12:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Kentucky by 2.8
- Projected total
- 43.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 45.9%
- Went to overtime
- 4.5%
- Kennesaw State wins by 21+
- 4.9%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 9.8%
- Median score
- 20–23
- Model expectation
- 19.8–22.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kennesaw State wins, bars on the left are Western Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Kennesaw State offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense -7.7Defense -3.3Edge Western Kentucky: its defense is 4.5 points better than Kennesaw State's offense.
Western Kentucky offense vs Kennesaw State defenseOffense -5.2Defense -0.6Edge Kennesaw State: its defense is 4.6 points better than Western Kentucky's offense.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Western Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.07 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.5% | 36.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.0 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
