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Kent State vs Ohio prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KENT 23% win77% OHIO
17Projected
vs
27ProjectedNeutral site
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Neutral site
Ohio Bobcats
Record 6–2 · #80 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 7 vs 42
- Projected
- OHIO favored
- Differential
- 10.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio by 10.1
- Projected total
- 43.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 36.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 1.4%
- Ohio wins by 21+
- 22.4%
- Median score
- 16–27
- Model expectation
- 16.5–26.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kent State wins, bars on the left are Ohio wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio 27, Kent State 1085 games
- Ohio 27, Kent State 1478 games
- Ohio 27, Kent State 1778 games
- Ohio 24, Kent State 1077 games
- Ohio 20, Kent State 1476 games
- Ohio 24, Kent State 1776 games
Where the edges are
Kent State offense vs Ohio defenseOffense -10.2Defense -0.9Edge Ohio: its defense is 9.3 points better than Kent State's offense.
Ohio offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -0.4Defense -1.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Kent State | Ohio | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.01 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.3% | 48.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4% | 40.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 29.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5 | 21.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.