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Kent State vs Sacramento State prediction
Kickoff Fri 9:30 PM CT, at Sacramento State
KENT 67% win33% SAC
22Projected
vs
17ProjectedAway
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 7 vs 1
- Projected
- KENT favored
- Differential
- 5.8 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Sacramento State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 9:30 PM CT, at Sacramento State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kent State by 5.8
- Projected total
- 38.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.3%
- Went to overtime
- 4.7%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 13.3%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Median score
- 21–16
- Model expectation
- 21.9–16.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kent State wins, bars on the left are Sacramento State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Kent State 24, Sacramento State 1798 games
- Kent State 17, Sacramento State 1086 games
- Kent State 20, Sacramento State 1785 games
- Kent State 17, Sacramento State 1380 games
- Kent State 20, Sacramento State 1476 games
- Kent State 24, Sacramento State 1076 games
Where the edges are
Kent State offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -10.2Defense -7.8Edge Sacramento State: its defense is 2.4 points better than Kent State's offense.
Sacramento State offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -12.0Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 11.0 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
| Stat | Kent State | Sacramento State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.01 | -0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.20 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.3% | 36.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5 | 32.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.