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Kent State vs South Florida prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
KENT 16% win84% USF
12Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Neutral site
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 7 vs 60
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 13.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 13.2
- Projected total
- 36.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 0.6%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 28.9%
- Median score
- 10–24
- Model expectation
- 11.4–24.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Kent State wins, bars on the left are South Florida wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Florida 20, Kent State 10117 games
- South Florida 17, Kent State 7114 games
- South Florida 20, Kent State 7112 games
- South Florida 24, Kent State 7111 games
- South Florida 23, Kent State 7104 games
- South Florida 27, Kent State 1098 games
Where the edges are
Kent State offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -10.2Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 14.4 points better than Kent State's offense.
South Florida offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -2.2Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 1.2 points better than South Florida's offense.
| Stat | Kent State | South Florida | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.01 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.11 | 0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 35.3% | 47.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 45.4% | 42.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 14.9 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.